This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings changed up their competitions a bit and I like the new choice of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for money games, and that I was just going to pick the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I will see the main event just scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young creates a great money game play. I really don’t know how large of a ceiling he’s because I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I think he’s a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a combination of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside in a conclusion, and I think he could finish this battle. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he is my money game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He must be the much superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang the feet as well. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but this is why he is my GPP play of the week rather than my money game play of the week. In cash, I wish to lock in higher flooring and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many points he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a profit if he dropped a determination at that price and scored 30-40 points, we would simply need to hit our other areas. We don’t want 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the chance on a 0 because he has 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him getting numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay position for as long as it continues. Personally, I find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I think Gastelum gets the maximum floor of the underdogs since he will have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a fair number of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That’s why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him my fade each time he’s fought so that I will roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score highly is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price label, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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